Currently we've a small high sitting right where it should over the Azores.  But we've also got another bigger high sitting over Bermuda.  The feeling is this will migrate eastward and they will join together  over the Azores - and if that does happen it should generate strongish favourable winds all the way on whats called a great circle route.  Basically a straight line following the earths contour.  I'm sure most racers will gamble on this happening, and take that option - but it has some risks.

Most cruisers usually prefer a less risky and indeed, more comforatable ride in what they know will be more moderate winds. 

They'll get those by initially heading south running before the predicted northerlies, and then turning gradually right following the winds swinging round so they continue to blow from behind you as you head off to the west.

If that Bermudan high does not migrate towards the Azores - then this route will see them heading south into lighter winds.  So not only 200 miles longer, but maybe a portion of it when one will sail slowly?

But there is a bigger risk fo rthe racers who choose to go west early.   If the migration of the Bermudan high does not happen then its likely a trough of low pressure with very very little wind will be found between the two highs.  That could be 50 or more miles wide - and the racers can't use engines................

So a choice is going to have to be made bu all skippers at some time.

Go north with shorter distance, possibly windier, but risk the light wind trough?  Or south, more comfortable but 200 additional miles to cover but risk the medium winds?  Or go south, then west, then south, then west?  Or west, then south, then west?

All this shows why good weather info, along with good advice on how to interpret the projected weather, is important if one wants to find the fastest, safest route across, and win.

And frankly, if we want to stand any chance of winning on the handicaps they've allotted, we are going to have to pick exactly the right course plus sail extremely well.  They've given us a silly 1.070 - which is the highest rating for any boat under 50 foot! 

Indeed, it is higher than all the Beneteau 57's and just a fraction below the Hanse 540! 

Sue says we're to take it as a compliment.

I've lodged a complaint.  Let's hope common sense prevails and we get it adjusted.....

If it does not change, do we accept we'll never win - and simply cruise over on the easy route?  Well I'm sure we'll decide what to do one day - and probably change it again when we're sailing alongside another boat we want to be in front of.........

I mean, our friendly rivals fellow 461 Anteater Blues is in the racing division.  They've truly minimised on what they are carrying to go faster downwind, have six race crew on board, and a wide suite of newer sails.   Would'nt it be good to be there sippin rum punch when they arrive???  I can only dream.

It's a rally, not a race?

Right?

Have attended a few more seminars on radio procedures and safety.  The radio net they run on the rally is actually less important today than it used to be.  Ten years back it is how they consolidated and then reported all ships positions back to the organisers so they could plot them.  Today, we all have to carry an email transmitting facility (SSB and pactor modem in our case) where we report direct.  Equally, weather reports will be emailed direct to us each afternoon – so the value in the radio net run between all the ships could be questioned.

But as it is quite possible some people’s SSB radios will fail, setting aside a quiet period each day when the whole fleet of 240 boats listens in to the shorter range VHF radio to pick up any distress or reporting calls from other yachts, is sensible.  That way all positions should get logged, and in the event of any emergency, the organisers can best mobilise close by yachts to provide assistance.  There’s actually not a lot of help the organisers can provide when we are mid Atlantic – it is only our fellow sailors around to rely on.

The fleet will have 16 net controller appointed – people who by and large know a lot more about radios than I do (or else I too would have volunteered).  Dependent on where they are on any one day, each will take turns to contact all the other yachts close to them, and pick up positions.  At the close of this network schedule (sked they call it) the radio waves will then be free for social chatter – in which we will take part!  It is a good chance to exchange exact weather being experienced by others close by – for a distance of 50 miles north / south can see a variation in wind strength – and allow one to modify ones course accordingly.

We want (yup want, not guaranteed will get) a F4 / 5 wind for the whole trip.  Downwind, with spinnaker and main set daytime and possibly back to two headsails alone at night, that should see us average 7.5 knots.  That means we could be over there in less than 16 days.  Of course we’ll be trying to get the maximum out of the boat, but we won’t win any prizes if we blow sails out or loose the rig.  So our journey is going to be a careful balance of speed with safety.

The advice given by others who've done it before is to save your fuel for the last weeks, when closing the Caribbean islands. In the cruising division one is allowed to use ones engine (and then report for how long so they can adjust your handicap result accordingly).  They say we’ll be subjected to more squalls arriving from the east behind us as we get closer, and whilst they will rocket us off downwind for a while, once the squalls gone through, it usally leaves a windless period where if you don't use your engine, you sit rocking and rolling, sails slatting and banging, and going no where.  That’s when fuel to burn and a good engine can be very useful.

But we are not alone in needing to be careful with fuel consumption.  We’re carrying 260 litres in our main tank, and a further 250 litres in jerry cans.  Making some assumptions about a favourable following sea we should be able to maintain a 7 knot average under engine running at 2,200 revs.  At those revolutions we’ll consume 0.7 litres per mile.  So leaving aside a gallon or two for emergencies, our range is effectively 700 miles.  So however you look at it – we need to find good winds for at least 2,200 miles of the journey – so fingers crossed, eh?

Completed all our boat chores just fine.  No more work to do except polish the topsides as the diver does underneath on Thursday.

Searched far and wide for long life bread in local big supermarkets using my treadly.  As you’d expect they’d had a run on it but Sara (bless her) secured the loafs by literally diving for the last 5 on the lowest shelf.  I need to track down another 5 today.

Had our crew supper last night in company with all others on boats 45 – 55 foot long.  Small world.  For the meal we sat opposite some guys off the Island Packet 48 Andante that we’d met with on the Rally Portugal three years back…..  They’d stopped in Lagos after we left for the Balearics, and are now off on the World ARC which begins from St Lucia in January.  We wish them good sailing.

So that’s it so far.  Have to say am enjoying doing all this as part of the ARC as opposed to going over solo.  Not only feels safer – but with what they’ve managed to impart with seminars and skippers sharing tips – they actually have made the crossing safer for all.  Good one.