May. 22, 2008 - forecasting

Its an interesting observation that over the last 24hrs, the weather forecast has changed dramatically....

I was watching the weather for our trip over to Oostende this weekend, less because of the outward journey, but more for the return.... I guess I am sensitised to this one, as the last two years have seen pretty nasty conditions after our arrival, in both cases delaying departure.... And this year, we are only on a long weekend, so can't really afford to be delayed.

So it was with some trepidation that I watched the forecasts showing steadily increasing winds with a nasty low squeezing its way over the UK, compressing the isobars and the real risk of some substantial wind later in the weekend....

Only Wednesday night, the models changed dramatically. The low now forecast to be squeezed much further north by a building high pressure over continental Europe, and totally different conditions across the southern north sea.... gone are the 28kts, gusting 35kts in the forecast, and in comes 1kts, gusting 3kts....

It got me to wondering how the models can change so significantly in such a short period of time.... it must be a real headache for the forecasters...

I'd rather sail than motor, but I do know which forecast I prefer!